A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
