Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
